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FCT Council Elections: Expecting ADC to Defeat Tinubu in 2027 Is Like Hoping Wolverhampton Defeats Arsenal! I am famous for saying that the best predictor of the future is the past. And if you look at the results of the just-concluded Abuja FCT council polls and the fact that the 2027 Presidential election is in a year, almost to the day, you would obviously see that it is statistically impossible for any party, especially the African Democratic Congress, to dislodge President Tinubu. Now, what are the factors behind this diagnosis? Firstly, like the Labour Party before it, the ADC depends on personality rather than structure. And in the history of Nigeria, and please fact-check me, only five individuals have been able to transfer the power of their personality to draw votes to others outside their immediate state or province (before states were created), and regions. They are: Ahmadu Rabah, later known as Sir Ahmadu Bello, Sardauna of Sokoto. Chief Obafemi Awolowo President Olusegun Obasanjo President Muhammadu Buhari, and President Bola Tinubu No other person in the geopolitical area now known as Nigeria has achieved that larger-than-life political status. Chief Emeka Ojukwu had some success in his state. He was defeated in a senatorial election in 1983, and in the 2003 presidential election, Chief Obasanjo defeated him in his home state. His one major success story was in 2003, when he introduced and endorsed Peter Obi after Obi promised never to leave the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA. Peter Obi's movement in 2023 was not a result of his personality. It was an offshoot of his ethnicity. Social media archaeology has since shown that many of his current vocal supporters actually hated his guts while he was Anambra Governor. The only reason they supported him in 2023, with some still following him now, is because they saw him as the only hope for the Igbo to attain the Presidency. And that is why, after 2023, every single person Peter Obi has campaigned for or endorsed outside his state has lost their election. Even in his state, the candidates he endorsed, including George Moghalu, the gubernatorial candidate of the Labour Party in the 2025 Anambra gubernatorial election, lost in his (Moghalu's) polling unit, and even Peter Obi lost in his own polling unit. Peter Obi lacks strength of personality. He only has the strength of ethnicity. Now, that is the main reason the ADC performed so poorly in Saturday's FCT council polls. Peter Obi and his ethnically based followers so ethnicised the election by the way they threw the ethnicities of their candidates in the face of the electorate that their outrageous behaviour awakened the irredentism in the Gbagyi people of Abuja, who turned against them. But the All Progressives Congress relied on three things: Structure President Tinubu and his minister, Wike's record in office, and finally The incumbency factor While it may be easy to convince people who back you because you are of the same Igbo ethnicity as them that President Tinubu is a disaster in office, it is not so easy to do so to those who do not share kin with you, especially when they can see the overwhelming evidence of Nyesom Wike's infrastructural achievements in the FCT. Try driving to low-income areas, like Bwari, Kubwa, Idu, Karimu, Lugbe, and Kuje, and you would see that Wike has transformed the lives of Abuja residents almost from night to day. And you expect these people to live the party he endorsed and vote for the ADC because of a man who spent eight years as Anambra Governor without building a single nursery, primary, or secondary school and university? What planet are you living on? Leave Local Government Chairmen, who built schools, because of a Presidential aspirant, who, as Governor, failed to build schools? Come on
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