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Festus Keyamo, SAN, CON, FCIArb (UK) @fkeyamo I have always admired Engr. Mohammed Rabi'u Musa Kwankwaso from a distance, but he appears to have boxed himself into one of the tightest corner in his political career simply because of his refusal/indecision to take the Olive Branch that was offered him by APC much earlier. Let’s break down his predicament: 1. FACT NO. 1 - Kwankwaso wants to be President, but none of the major political parties will pick him as a candidate in 2027. APC & PDP are going South & ADC’s ticket is Atiku’s to lose. Atiku is the owner of ADC (argue with your keypad, if you like). Only a major political Party can win a Presidential election in Nigeria. NNPP is still a one-State Party and with the recent wave of defections from NNPP (including the Governor himself), it is doubtful if it can maintain its grip on Kano in 2027. A leader is only as strong as his devoted lieutenants. 2. FACT NO. 2 - Kwankwaso WILL NOT support a Northern candidate because that ends his own Presidential ambition since he MAY have to wait for another 16 years after 2027 to get a shot at the Presidency - 8 likely years for the Northern Candidate and another 8 likely years when it rotates to the South again. That’s a gamble he WILL NOT TAKE. He will be 86 years old by then. So, this entirely rules out an ATIKU-Kwankwaso cooperation in 2027 3. FACT NO. 3 - Based on the above calculations, the only pathway for Kwankwaso is in 2031, but the alliance he builds in 2027 will be crucial to his ambitions in 2031. If his grip on Kano slips in 2027, it will water down his clout and influence in 2031 to be handed a Presidential ticket by any of the major Political parties. This is the time he can cash in on his presumed dominance of Kano politics and take a chance. 4. FACT 4: Kwankwaso’s only chance of a realistic alliance now with a major political Party is actually narrowed down to the PDP, the APC or the Labour Party (only if Peter Obi returns there and picks the 2027 Presidential ticket and he agrees to run as VP candidate to Obi). But all three options present their own challenges: (a) with the PDP now gasping for breath, it may be easier for Kwankwaso to return to PDP on some terms (like taking over the entire structure in Kano and some North West States and returning Kano to PDP). And that will signal the death of NNPP. But with the zoning of the Presidential ticket to the South, that would mean a suspension of his 2027 Presidential ambition till 2031. (b) If Kwankwaso decides to pitch tent with the APC, he is in no position to dictate so much terms to the Party. With the exodus of key figures from NNPP to APC in Kano, the APC’s structure in Kano is now in better stead to challenge the NNPP in 2027. The APC is therefore not so desperate for a Kwankwaso in Kano, but would be glad to welcome him into the Party. He still remains an asset. But one thing is sure: the APC cannot throw its entire structure in Kano under the bus for a Kwankwaso, especially with the Governor parting ways with him. However, the attraction of the APC for him is that the APC still has the national spread and structures to retain power in 2031. So, an APC option for Kwankwaso will also mean a suspension of his Presidential ambition till 2031. (c) the 2027 Labour Party option for Kwankwaso is narrower because he simply cannot and will not run as Vice-Presidential candidate to Peter Obi. Take that to the bank. His own people will not even support him to give a likely fresh 8 years to the South (forget all the noise of ‘I will serve just one term). FACT 5: From the scenarios above, Kwankwaso is in a very difficult political crossroads . The decision he makes now may retire him permanently from politics or revive his Presidential ambition. But one fact is clear: just like late Buhari and the CPC, without a handshake with another major Party, he will remain a local champion with his NNPP, but that too may soon vanish with the present predicament of the Party in Kano.
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